Case Modeling and Forecasting

When the stakes are high, models matter. Inform responsible reopening practices with our COVID-19 case modeling and forecasting tools.

Many of the current models used to forecast new COVID-19 cases are based on methods rooted in the limited computing power available in the 1960s. The models work in the aggregate to show changes in trends based on a handful of variables, at most.

These models were critical in informing the first steps to mitigate and control spread through social distancing, but policymakers and practitioners at all levels – as well as decision makers in nursing homes, schools, universities, and others – need more precise tools to guide and sustain our response to both the public health and economic challenges created by COVID-19. Our modeling tools leverage leading-edge technology and build on our former work forecasting the spread of HIV.

Ready to see how you can model your COVID-19 response?

Our public health experts partner with you to craft your policy options, tailor the model to your needs, and interpret simulation results.

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Our COVID-19 simulators:

Leverage sophisticated statistical methods to provide a more granular picture of how mitigation strategies can fit the needs of specific populations.
Use demographics, risk factors, and network analysis to consider the unique characteristics of a community and people’s interactions in workplaces, schools, universities, and communities.
Enable decisionmakers to better understand the implications of critical policies like returning to in-person classes, maintaining shelter-at-home protocols for senior citizens, and re-opening restaurants and other businesses within their communities.
Run in a secure, scalable, and seamless cloud environment regardless of your current IT infrastructure constraints.
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Fact sheet

Guiding real-world policy choices

Our COVID-19 models use advanced statistical methods and behavioral science to consider the unique characteristics and social networks of a community. Learn more about how our COVID-19 models and how they can be tailored to fit specific use cases.

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Related Staff

Andrew Hurwitz

Andrew Hurwitz

Lead Data Scientist

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Divya Vohra

Divya Vohra

Senior Researcher

View Bio Page
John Hotchkiss

John Hotchkiss

Senior Data Scientist

View Bio Page
COVID-19 Services

Guide recovery and build resilience.

Our data science, education, and public health experts guide your path to recovery with objective research, data modeling tools, contact tracing, and dashboards. Learn more about our services.

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