Evaluation of the Million Hearts® Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Model

Mathematica and collaborators at RAND and the University of Colorado found that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Million Hearts^® Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Model reduced the incidence of first-time heart attacks and strokes for high- and medium-risk Medicare beneficiaries by 3 to 4 percent and reduced the death rate by more than 4 percent. In achieving these reductions, the Million Hearts Model met its goal of decreasing the incidence of first-time heart attacks and strokes among high- and medium-risk Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries over five years.

Mathematica and RAND’s five-year randomized trial evaluation of the Million Hearts Model showed positive impacts on preventive care for CVD and cardiovascular risk factors. The findings suggest the model prevented one CVD event over five years for roughly every 250 to 400 high- and medium-risk beneficiaries enrolled, depending on the outcome definition used.