Data analytics have dramatically transformed many sports. For example, analytics in basketball have demonstrated that three-point shots are typically better than mid-range two-point shots despite being less likely to go in the hoop. The higher value of the three-point shot more than compensates for their higher difficulty. Teams have changed their shot selection to reflect this understanding, with the number of three-point attempts rising dramatically and a corresponding decline in mid-range two-point shots. The shot chart below (showing each made shot with an O and each missed shot with an X) is typical, with most shots close to the hoop or just outside the three-point line. And the analytics have gone further, identifying the offensive plays that produce the best shots as well as the defensive plays that take away those shots.
In short, data analytics have identified the actions that a player can take to maximize the probability of a favorable outcome.
Analytics have also changed the narrative about games. Coaches (including the coach of my beloved Boston Celtics) now routinely talk in postgame interviews about "making the right play"—even if the play did not produce a win. Consider: the world's best three-point shooters miss more than they make, which means that the right play often fails to produce the desired outcome. Smart coaches recognize when their team made the right play even when they lose, because consistently making the right decision increases the probability of overall success.
How is this relevant to school accountability? It serves as a reminder that student outcomes are not entirely under the control of schools. Schools can affect outcomes, of course, but outcomes are also affected by family and neighborhood factors. But even in a school where student outcomes are negatively affected by external factors, state education agencies can expect schools to "make the right play."
