Success Sequence: A Synthesis of the Literature
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Success Sequence: A Synthesis of the Literature

OPRE Report 2020-41
Published: Dec 30, 2020
Publisher: Washington, DC: Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Human Services Family Support Youth Development
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Authors

Brian Goesling

Hande Inanc

Angela Rachidi

Key Findings
  • Researchers and commentators have defined the success sequence in varying ways. The most widely used definition describes the success sequence as first obtaining at least a high school education, then finding a full-time job, and finally waiting for marriage to have children.
  • Research from the academic fields of demography, economics, and sociology shows that the three milestones that make up the success sequence (education, employment, and nonmarital childbearing) are all interconnected and strongly associated with economic outcomes in adulthood.
  • There is less empirical evidence on the success sequence as a whole. Most of the 13 empirical studies identified in our search used descriptive methods applied to cross-sectional survey data to compare families on measures of poverty and middle-income status.
  • Studies provide correlational evidence that families meeting the definitions of the success sequence milestones have lower relative poverty rates and higher relative rates of middle-income status than families who do not meet the definitions. There is less evidence on whether these associations reflect causal pathways or on whether the sequencing of the milestones matters.
  • Recent studies using longitudinal data partly address this limitation and suggest a promising direction for future research on the success sequence.

In fall 2018, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services contracted with Mathematica to conduct a literature review and an economic analysis of the success sequence. This report presents findings from the literature review, which sought to summarize (1) how researchers and commentators have variously defined the success sequence, (2) research on the individual milestones that make up the success sequence, and (3) research on the relationship between the success sequence milestones and economic outcomes in adulthood. The summary encompasses policy reports and commentaries as well as research studies from the academic fields of demography, economics, and sociology.

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