A Study of the COVID-19 Outbreak and Response in Connecticut Long-Term Care Facilities: Interim Report

Mathematica analyzed publicly reported data from the state’s long-term care (LTC) facilities to understand the extent of the outbreak, including which facilities had the worst outbreaks. We compared the Connecticut data to other states in the region that publicly report data from long- term care facilities. Additionally, we interviewed a wide range of stakeholders within the state to see what was effective and what can and should change with better preparation and resources. They included state agency staff, facility administrators, trade association representatives, labor representatives, legislators, and family members with loved ones living in LTC facilities. Finally, we reviewed all relevant policy documentation and guidance as part of our assessment of the state’s preparedness and response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Additionally, the report found that COVID-19 cases and deaths were concentrated in certain long-term care facilities nursing homes. Our research found that the prevalence of COVID-19 in the surrounding community was a major predictor of its effect on nursing homes and assisted living communities. The other major predictors were whether the nursing home was for-profit, and their level of staffing. For-profit nursing homes had about 60 percent more cases and deaths than nonprofit nursing homes. Nursing homes with higher reported staffing also had significantly fewer cases and deaths than those with lower staffing. Adjusting for nursing home characteristics, deaths remain similar in nursing homes across nearby states based on our preliminary analysis of those interviews, we identified recommendations in a number of the following areas that will ensure that the state and long-term care industry are better positioned to respond to a potential second wave of COVID-19.