The Most Important Developments in Evidence and Well-Being in 2023, According to Our Listeners

Preview clips

LAURIN BIXBY:

One important development this year

SELENA CALDERA:

in the world of evidence and well-being

ERIN TAYLOR:

is the growing research around

SHANNON MONAHAN:

the crisis in child care

BILL NICHOLS:

the impact of poverty reduction on family life

ERIN TAYLOR:

the connection between climate change and health conditions

JEFF BERNSON:

an increase in state and in-state conflict, globally

J.B. WOGAN

I’m J.B. Wogan from Mathematica and welcome back to On the Evidence. To help me wrap up 2023 and usher in the new year, I’m joined by our producer, Rick Stoddard. Welcome, Rick.

RICK STODDARD

Thanks, J.B. – it’s good to be with you to close out 2023 and look ahead together.

J.B. WOGAN

So, for today’s episode, we’re doing something a little different. We’re handing over the mic to friends of the show, including listeners and some former guests, and we asked them to send us short voice notes about something that happened this year related to evidence and well-being and why that development will still matter in 2024. And so, we’re going to play those responses today.

RICK STODDARD

It’s always fun to do a little crowd-sourcing, and this episode does just that. Contributors include some of our colleagues at Mathematica, as well as a few familiar voices listeners may recognize—so they can tell us, and all of you, what really moved the needle in 2023, and what we should all keep our eyes on as we carry forward into the new year.

Let’s hear our first submission.

SELENA CALDERA:

My name is Selena Caldera. I am a senior strategic policy advisor at AARP in Washington DC. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was broader and greater focus on scalability of policy solutions across different communities. And the reason I think it will still matter in 2024 is that this focus recognizes that policy solutions must take into account the diverse lived experiences in different states, neighborhoods and communities to be effective. This is critically important in the support of family caregivers because their experiences as caregivers are so diverse.

J.B. WOGAN

So, it was so great to hear from Selena again. She was a summer fellow at Mathematica in 2019 and she was a guest on the podcast in January of 2020. At the time, she was a doctoral student researching factors that influence long-term care decisions. It’s nice to see that she landed at an organization where she can continue to work on long-term care policy. By the way, you can check out that previous episode with Selena. It’s episode 28, What the Next Generation of Policy Researchers Is Studying.

RICK STODDARD

Selena wasn’t the only person who talked about the scalability of solutions, and it relates to something else we heard in other submissions, which is encouraging progress in building up the capacity of federal agencies to generate rigorous evidence on solutions, so that they can eventually be scaled up. Let’s hear another submission.

CHRISTINA CIOCCA ELLER:

My name is Christina Ciocca Eller. I am Assistant Professor of Sociology and Social Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge Massachusetts. And I formerly served as Assistant Director for Evidence and Policy at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well being was the establishment of new pilot programs to connect federal agencies with researchers outside of the federal government to support evidence generation and use. Two of these programs include the Analytics for Equity Initiative led by the National Science Foundation and portal opportunities established by the Office of Management and Budget and listed on evaluation.gov. The reason I think these still will matter in 2024 is because they're pilots. So there is an opportunity to assess, learn from and potentially scale them up in the new year. All of this work I hope will build stronger ties across the government and research sectors uh in order to do better evidence based policy in 2024 and beyond.

RICK STODDARD

So Christina was one of several guests who joined us this year for a new feature on the show that we call, Evidence in Government. Listeners, you may be familiar with it. We ask guests to talk about what’s happening in the halls of government, and the role evidence can or should play in decisions that impact—and hopefully improve—people’s lives.

J.B. WOGAN

By the way, that National Science Foundation initiative Christina mentioned, that builds off the Foundation for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018. Recent legislative activity to improve upon that law was on the minds of a few of our other contributors. Let’s hear from them.

NICHOLE DUNN:

My name is Nicole Dunn. I lead the federal policy at the nonprofit results for America in Washington DC. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well being was the formation of the new bipartisan congressional. What works caucus led by us representatives Blake Greg, Landsman, Rudy Yam and Britney Petersen. This work will remain critical in 2024 as the caucus will work with lawmakers across the political spectrum to help ensure that federal taxpayer dollars are invested as effectively and efficiently as possible, improving outcomes for Children, families and communities nationwide.

RICK STODDARD

So not only was Nichole a guest on the program earlier this year, but she also attended an event we hosted—that Mathematica hosted on Capitol Hill in May where members of Congress, leaders from the public and private sectors, as well as academia, came together to reflect on evidence building across the federal government, and how to accelerate the use of evidence in policymaking to improve outcomes for people across the country. We’ll all be paying attention to what the Bipartisan Congressional What Works Caucus does in 2024 – thanks again, Nichole Dunn of Results for America.

Here’s our next submission, this from a member of Mathematica’s leadership team.

JILL CONSTANTINE:

I'm Jill Constantine, the managing director of the Human Services Unit at Mathematica. One development that I was excited about this year is the congressional evidence-based policy making resolution that would require Congress to use data and evidence in drafting of legislation and policy uh through things like uh creating a data infrastructure for Congress, having more data scientists and technologists on staff. Uh I think this is important because if the very policies and legislation that are drafted are more data and evidence based, that's gonna lead to more effective policies and programs.

J.B. WOGAN

I think it’s worth noting that these submissions from Nichole and Jill are the only two where we really had any overlap, and I think it speaks to the importance of the 2018 law and current activity to improve upon it and increase the evidence-building capacity of federal agencies and Congress.

Let’s hear another submission on a different topic.

LAURIN BIXBY:

My name is Lauren Bixby. I am a phd candidate at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, PA and a former summer fellow at Mathematica. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was that the NIH designated people with disabilities as a health disparities population. And the reason I think it will still matter in 2024 is that this will expand opportunities for research that will improve access to health care and advance health equity for the disability community.

J.B. WOGAN

Listeners will hear from Lauren again next month when we drop an episode with the most recent cohort of Mathematica’s summer fellows, including Lauren. Her research focuses on the intersection of health and disability policy and the structural barriers to health and economic well-being for people with disabilities.

By the way, Mathematica is accepting applications for its 2024 summer fellowship program. You can apply from now through the end of February. In the show notes, we can put more information about how you can apply.

RICK STODDARD

Lauren was one of several of this episode’s contributors interested in health and health policy. Let’s hear more now, from another Mathematica colleague of ours.

JONATHAN MORSE:

My name is Jonathan Morris. I'm a senior Vice president of Mathematica in the health care practice based in Washington DC. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well being is that national health expenditures are expected to climb from 4.4 trillion in this year to 7.2 trillion by 2031 driven by baby boomer enrollment in the Medicare program. This matters in 2024 because despite the best efforts of the Affordable Care Act, health Care costs continue to climb and we need to bring our best thinking to CMS to help bend the cost curve and ensure sustainability to Medicare and Medicaid.

J.B. WOGAN

Rick, I don’t know about you, but that projection about the expected growth in national health care spending really was amazing to me, especially given how long policymakers have been working to bend the cost curve.

RICK STODDARD

Yeah, it is kind of eye-popping to see that it’s almost a 50 per cent increase between now and 2031.

Our next submission, which is also about health, comes from a reporter at our favorite health economics podcast, Tradeoffs.

ALEX OLGIN

My name is Alex Olgin. I'm a reporter producer with Tradeoffs. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was that a randomized controlled trial of a decades old home visit nurse program for pregnant mothers found it had no significant impact on maternal and child health. The reason I think this matters for 2024 is that several states with recently expanded Medicaid coverage for moms are looking for ways to improve health.

J.B. WOGAN

For listeners who want to learn more about the study Alex references, we’ll drop a link in the show notes to a newsletter from the Tradeoffs podcast. The evidence comes out of South Carolina, but as Alex says, the findings have policy relevance for states all over the country.

RICK STODDARD

Scientific trials and studies play a critical role in producing evidence to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of new interventions and treatments. Our next contribution highlights a new treatment that will become available in the United States in the near future.

SHANA CHRISTRUP

My name is Shana Christrup. I am the Director of Public Health at the bipartisan Policy Center in Washington DC. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well being was the European approval and the pending FDA approval of a new sickle cell drug based on the DNA modifying process of CRISPR. This will still matter in 2024 because we are finally starting to see breakthroughs for diseases that disproportionately affect minority populations and which have a dramatic lifelong impact on overall health and well being. Now we just have to sort out how to pay for them.

J.B. WOGAN

Rick, as I’m sure you remember, Shana was a guest on our podcast earlier this summer discussing recent findings from Mathematica and the Food and Nutrition Service on the impact of pandemic-era waivers on increasing access to school meals, especially during the summer months. And it’s worth noting that shortly after Shana sent us her submission, the FDA did indeed approve the drug, paving the way for Americans to receive this treatment.

RICK STODDARD

Our next contributor is another of our Mathematica colleagues who speaks to a topic we’ve addressed several times on the show.

ERIN TAYLOR:

My name is Erin Taylor. I'm a managing director in the health unit at Mathematica in Washington DC. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well being is the growing research around the connection between climate change and health conditions like cardiovascular disease and dementia. The reason I think it will still matter in 2024 is climate related events like wildfires will only continue to become more frequent. So better understanding their connection to all aspects of human health, including short, medium and long term effects and conditions is critical.

RICK STODDARD:

As we record this podcast, the COP28 2023 United Nations Climate Conference has just concluded in Dubai and, to Erin’s point, it’s worth noting that the conference held a first-ever health day this year focused on that intersection of climate change and health.

J.B. WOGAN:

For listeners who want to go deeper on the subject, episode 81 of On the Evidence featured Don Berwick, a former administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services who is now involved in the National Academy of Medicine’s Action Collaborative on Decarbonizing the U.S. Health Sector (also known as the Climate Collaborative).

Climate change can negatively affect people’s health. It can also lead to human conflicts over scarce resources. This next submission touches on concerning trends in human conflict across the globe.

JEFF BERNSON

My name is Jeff Bernson. I’m the senior vice president for Mathematica Global. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being is the concerning trend showing an increase in state and in-state conflict globally. In 2022, mortality due to conflict reached a peak not seen since the 1980s and this continues as an upward trend in 2023. The reason this matters is the conflict deeply shapes aid effectiveness and development programs both in the long and short run. What works for countries with relatively stable peace and security, may not work with populations under-going or recovering from the trauma of conflict. This changing context provides us with an urgent appeal to both learn from and frame the insights we generate from the research and analytics we conduct in both post conflict areas as well as with populations displaced by conflict.

J.B. WOGAN

As listeners might have noticed, Jeff mentions that he oversees Mathematica Global. That by the way is our new name for the international division at Mathematica. It combines the previous international research division at Mathematica with our subsidiary, EDI Global, and that name change just happened and I think it’s a reflection of the priority that Mathematica and other evidence-oriented organizations are placing on the need for evidence-based solutions to modern, borderless problems, whether it’s climate change, conflict, hopefully no more pandemics, but certainly the COVID-19 pandemic. So, just wanted to flag that Mathematica Global, that’s what it is, where it comes from. It’s a new change at the company.

This next submission relates to how development agencies outside the United States generate evidence of effectiveness. And to head off any confusion, the acronym that she mentions, M and E, refers to monitoring and evaluation.

BERTA HEYBEY

My name is Berta Heybey. I’m the managing director for monitoring and evaluation at the Millennium Challenge Corporation in Washington, D.C. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was the development of our new revised M&E policy. The updated policy addresses challenges teams commonly face in conducting M&E activities, such as understanding the results framework, establishing the role of M&E during program development, and defining the scope of independent evaluations. One reason why this will still be important in 2024 is that it will help better position both MCC and other development agencies to helping them conduct high quality M&E, thereby better supporting evidence-based decision making in their programs.

J.B. WOGAN

So for listeners who aren’t aware, the Millennium Challenge Corporation where Berta works, MCC for short, is an independent U.S. government foreign assistance agency that seeks to reduce poverty through economic growth in the countries that receive its assistance. Evidence has been part of the agency’s DNA since its inception in 2003, and MCC is considered a role model for gathering evidence on international development. And so with that context it’s a big deal that in September of this year, MCC published an updated policy on monitoring and evaluation, the first update of its kind in six years. In the show notes, I’ll include a link to blog from the agency that details the major changes in that update. But the main takeaway is that the agency wanted to provide a clearer roadmap for the entire lifecycle of the project, from setting goals before a project gets underway to the evaluation’s conclusions about whether a project’s objectives were achieved, and importantly, how the agency can improve future programming based on those learnings.

Let’s hear another submission related to evidence-based decisions outside the United States.

NANCY MURRAY

My name is Nancy Murray, and I am a Vice President of Mathematica Global, based in our Washington DC office.

JANE FORTSON

And I’m Jane Fortson, a senior director of international research at Mathematica Global in Seattle, Washington.

NANCY MURRAY

For the past several years, we’ve led a research team at Mathematica serving as the global learning partner for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation on its women’s economic empowerment and financial inclusion strategy.

JANE FORTSON

As listeners may know, over a billion women globally do not use or have access to the financial system – limiting their ability to save, access credit, and control their income.

NANCY MURRAY

We’ve been working with the Gates Foundation to understand whether digital payment programs can be a catalyst for financial inclusion and economic empowerment for women with low incomes while also reducing the significant gap in financial inclusion between women and men in low and middle income countries.

JANE FORTSON

And so, one important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being is new financial inclusion survey data showing that while financial account ownership has increased in recent years in some countries, many women with financial accounts do not regularly use them.

NANCY MURRAY

And the reason we think these data will still matter in 2024 is that they will spur more research to help identify and overcome the barriers that keep women from using financial accounts, which could be key in the broader effort around gender equality and women’s economic empowerment.

RICK STODDARD

Thanks to our colleagues Nancy and Jane for that reflection which provides a good example of how evidence of a shortcoming can be productive in informing future research and program design changes to increase effectiveness.

This, by the way, is a repeat appearance on the show for Nancy who participated in 2022’s end of year episode.

J.B. WOGAN

So that last batch of submissions really focused on how to leverage evidence to improve wellbeing abroad. Let’s come back to the U.S. now and domestic policy and hear a submission about early childhood education in the United States.

SHANNON MONAHAN

My name is Shannon Monahan. I am an early childhood researcher at Mathematica in Princeton, New Jersey. An important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was mounting evidence of a crisis in child care where there is a shortage of workers, wages are often low, demands are high, costs are up, centers are closing, and options for families are narrowing. And the reason I think it will still matter in 2024 is that we know a lot about what needs to happen. Children need safe, loving environments to support growing and learning. Parents need affordable options where their children will be nurtured. And educators need sustaining wages and supports for their well-being and professional growth.

RICK STODDARD

If this topic is of interest to you, listeners, Shannon appeared in a series produced by DCTV earlier this year about childcare in Washington, DC, called, “Stronger Start: Building Better Childcare.” And that series is publicly available on YouTube.

J.B. WOGAN

Rick, Shannon’s comments remind me of some research from another early childhood researcher at Mathematica, Owen Schochet, who also appeared in that DCTV docuseries. This year, Owen looked at the impacts of Washington, D.C.’s Early Childhood Educator Pay Equity Fund – I know it’s a mouthful – but what he found was that just two quarters after the launch of the fund, the initial payments increased the number of early childhood educators employed in Washington, DC by approximately 100 additional educators, or about 3 percent. And it’s still early days for the fund and its impacts, but Owen’s research suggests that this might be a useful strategy for increasing workforce retention and stability in child care and preschool programs.

So I’ll drop a link to that research brief in our show notes.

RICK STODDARD

I do think it’s important, because we pressed Owen on this, he did confirm it—that this is an example of the only program of its kind in the nation, and I think they’re excited about it because it is showing early signs of success and of great impact.

J.B. WOGAN

This next submission comes from the editor of one of my favorite newsletters, which is focused on evidence-based solutions for reducing poverty and increasing opportunity in the United States.

BILL NICHOLS

My name is Bill Nichols. I'm the editorial director at Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity in Washington, D.C. And one important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was new studies showing the impact of poverty reduction on family life and infants’ and toddlers’ cognitive, emotional, and brain development. The reason I think it will still matter in 2024 is that the debate will continue about cash assistance for families with young children such as the expanded child tax credit.

J.B. WOGAN

Our next submission follows on the same theme of reducing poverty and promoting economic opportunity. Let’s have a listen.

JEANNE BELLOTTI

My name is Jean Belotti and I am the senior director of Employment Research at Mathematica in Princeton, New Jersey. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was our finding that despite overall positive impacts on employment and earnings for participants in the Department of Labor in America's Promise Grant program, those impacts were concentrated exclusively among white participants with black and Hispanic participants experiencing no benefits. This will matter in 2024 because it reinforces the importance of uncovering and addressing racial inequities in America's workforce system and economy.

J.B. WOGAN

You know Rick, I think Jeanne’s submission is an excellent example of how our industry and the field of evidence-based policy research is evolving in the sense that it’s not enough now to conduct an impact evaluation and say, intervention x is working. Now we want to peel back the layers and do a little more of a nuanced analysis, disaggregate the data and find out, well, who is it for working for, is it working for everyone? Or, in this case, as Jeanne pointed out, White participants benefited but Black and Hispanic participants appeared not to be benefitting from this program.

So obviously economic opportunity was a popular topic among our contributors. But, of course, so was improving people’s health. As here’s another health-related submission. This one is focused on community health workers who became essential during the pandemic.

ELINOR HIGGINS

Hi, my name is Eleanor Higgins and I support state health officials and officials from the District of Columbia in developing and implementing health policy at the National Academy for State Health Policy in Portland, Maine. One important development this year in the world of evidence and well-being was an increase in the number of states that reimburse for community health worker services through state Medicaid programs. States and community health workers, as well as other partners, can work together to improve community health through meaningful understanding of the experiences and priorities of specific communities. The reason I think this is still going to matter in 2024 is that the community health worker workforce is currently supported in large part by temporary grants as well as funding tied to the COVID 19 pandemic response, much of which is set to run out next year. States and community health workers are partnering to identify ways to work toward sustainability for this workforce, and there's still a lot of work to do. So stay tuned.

RICK STODDARD

Elinor appeared in two of our previous podcasts, both about contact tracing during the Covid-19 pandemic. Community health workers were essential to state and local contact tracing programs, but even in a post-pandemic context they serve a critical function in reducing health disparities in communities of color and improving health for individuals with chronic conditions.

J.B. WOGAN

Elinor’s was the last of our recorded submissions, but we did hear from one more listener, Lee Gatewood, who chairs Mathematica’s Board of Directors, and I want to read his note now. He said that, “On the Evidence has provided me and many across the Board with a broader and deeper understanding of the many ways we are improving public well-being. It will continue to be a critical component in keeping us informed of our important impact and progress.”

And I just want to say, thank you so much, Lee. We know time is a precious resource and it doesn’t escape our attention that anyone who listens to any of our episodes, including this one, has done so when they could have been doing something else like watching a movie or listening to music. We’re grateful for your time and we’re glad you find what we’re doing useful.

RICK STODDARD

Yes, thanks to all of you listening right now. Know that we value your engagement and welcome your thoughts about how we might improve On the Evidence in 2024. Feel free to leave a comment via social media or YouTube, or add your rating and review on whichever podcasting platform you’re listening to us on now. We are always open to your ideas for future episodes, or potential guests and changemakers we should consider inviting onto the show.

J.B. WOGAN

As we close, I did want to take a moment to remember a former guest. Anita Summers died in October 2023 at the age of 98. I had the good fortune of interviewing Anita just before her 96th birthday. Anita was a pioneer in evidence-based policy research and a trailblazer for women in economics. She served on the Mathematica Board of Directors from 1992 to 2019. In the show notes, I’ll drop a link to that interview, which is among my favorites, and that’s episode 61.

RICK STODDARD

We’re so grateful to Anita for sharing her insights on the show and for so many contributions she made as a board member.

So with that, we want to thank everyone who contributed to today’s episode:

• Selena Caldera • Christina Ciocca Eller • Nichole Dunn • Jill Constantine

J.B. WOGAN

• Lauren Bixby • Jonathan Morse • Alex Olgin • Shana Christrup

RICK STODDARD

• Erin Taylor • Jeff Bernson • Berta Heybey • Nancy Murray

J.B. WOGAN

• Jane Fortson • Shannon Monahan • Bill Nichols • Jeanne Bellotti • And Elinor Higgins

RICK STODDARD

I’m Rick Stoddard

J.B. WOGAN

And I’m J.B. Wogan and we want to thank you for listening to On the Evidence, the Mathematica podcast.

RICK STODDARD

If you liked this episode, please consider subscribing. We’re on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Goodpods, Spotify, as well as other podcasting platforms.

J.B. WOGAN

To learn more about the show, visit us at Mathematica.org/OnTheEvidence. We’ll be back in your feeds in 2024.